Google’s liquid cooling demand far exceeds expectations: With a guidance of 33,000 CDUs over two years, China’s supply chain faces a historic opportunity
NVIDIA GPUs are not the sole winners in the AI computing power race. Leading ASIC chip manufacturers like Google are forging a distinct growth path based on their proprietary TPU architectures, driving demand for liquid cooling infrastructure at an unprecedented pace.
The key findings from Google’s recent Supply Chain Conference indicate that the company forecasts a demand of 33,000 two-megawatt CDUs (cold distribution units) over the next 24 months—significantly higher than previously estimated—and that the liquid cooling industry chain will experience unprecedented demand growth.
1. Transition from air cooling to liquid cooling: When TPU’s energy consumption exceeds the critical threshold
The substantial supply of TPU chips manufactured by Google itself is the fundamental reason behind the recent surge in demand for liquid cooling solutions.
For years, NVIDIA’s GPUs were prohibitively expensive with lengthy delivery times, compelling cloud service providers like Google to develop their own ASIC chips. Starting with the TPU V7, the power consumption per chip reached 980 watts—well above the critical 700-watt threshold for air-cooled systems. This prompted Google to fully adopt liquid cooling.
The newly released TPU V8 has further increased its power consumption to 1,200 watts, with a single cabinet consuming up to 135 kilowatts. Research reports indicate that the chip’s power consumption reaches 1,300 W—approximately 30% higher than the V7’s 980 W. Google also employs fourth-generation liquid cooling technology, delivering roughly double the performance per watt compared to the previous generation.
The exponential increase in power consumption indicates that liquid cooling has evolved from an optional solution to a necessity.
2. The CDU’s demand has far exceeded expectations: 33,000 units over two years, double the original estimate.
The CDU serves as the “heart” of the liquid cooling system, precisely distributing coolant to each cooling plate to achieve precise temperature control. Google has open-sourced its self-developed 2 MW-class DeSoto CDU onto OCP, thereby advancing standardization across the industry.
The CDU requirement guidelines presented at this supply chain conference were significantly higher than anticipated.
From July 2026 to June 2028—over the next 24 months—the total demand for two-megawatt CDUs will reach 33,000 units.
The production volume for the second half of 2026 is 5,000 units.
2027:18,000 units.
First half of 2028:10,000 units.
Google has explicitly stated that this guidance “will only be raised, not lowered.” The previous guidance provided during the June online meeting was based on an estimated demand of approximately 10,000 units, whereas the actual demand has nearly doubled this time. At a cost of around 1.5 million yuan per unit, the procurement cost for a single CDU approaches 50 billion yuan.
The shipment volume of TPU chips is also remarkable: next year, shipments of V7 and V8 chips are expected to reach 8–10 million units, equivalent to 125,000–140,000 cabinets, indicating substantial demand.
III. Supply Chain Restructuring: China’s production capacity advantages are being unleashed
Google places the highest priority on supply chain capacity and delivery efficiency, requiring global distribution within 12 weeks and multi-regional production capabilities. While technical drawings can be shared, large-scale manufacturing remains paramount.
Currently, no manufacturer has been able to produce more than 3,000 two-megawatt-class CDUs within a year, while Google’s demand for next year reaches 18,000 units. This significant capacity gap presents an opportunity for China’s supply chain.
The currently shortlisted domestic CDU manufacturers are:
Invik: Has obtained Google AVL certification and is one of the leading core suppliers of CDU products in China.
Kehua Data, a subsidiary of SDPPUMP: Upon obtaining the AVL code, it officially became part of Google’s supply chain.
Dongyangguang: Samples are currently being shipped, with a portion of the 18,000 orders expected to be delivered by 2027.
Meanwhile, domestic refrigeration equipment manufacturers such as Shenling are actively engaging with Google.
The production capacity advantage of China-based manufacturers, particularly their large-scale mass production capabilities, is one of the key reasons behind Google’s extensive use of Chinese suppliers this time.
IV. Pump and Side Car: The Overlooked Additional Space
Electronic screening pumps are one of the primary components of a CDU; each CDU is equipped with two pumps, one in operation and one as a backup. Based on a total of 33,000 CDUs, the corresponding number of pumps amounts to approximately 66,000.
In terms of cost, a 22 kW pump ranges from ¥44,000 to ¥45,000 per unit, while a 37 kW model costs approximately ¥68,000 to ¥75,000. The price of pumps within each CDU unit typically falls between ¥90,000 and ¥150,000. Google has explicitly mandated that CDU manufacturers must use electric shielded pumps instead of magnetic pumps. Domestic companies such as Feilong Co., Ltd. and Dayuan Pump Industry have already become significant players in the supply chain.
Additionally, Google introduced the Side Car—also known as the Brazos architecture—to convert legacy air-cooled data centers into liquid-cooled ones. Three 60 kW small CDUs operate together, delivering a total power output of 180 kW, with thousands required annually, thereby boosting the market share of CDUs and pumps.
V. Implications: The liquid cooling industry is undergoing a systematic reevaluation.
Google’s recently announced CDU demand far exceeds previous market expectations, and the introduction of the side car has opened up additional opportunities in the growth market. Beyond NVIDIA GPUs, liquid cooling demand in the ASIC industry remains a key driver that cannot be overlooked.
In the CDU segment, domestic manufacturers with Google certification will be the first to secure substantial orders. In the pump sector, electronic shielded pumps are clearly replacing traditional magnetic pumps, and companies within the supply chain can further expand their market share. The side-car segment, where the renovation of aging data centers is still in its early stages, represents another overlooked growth area.
The global market size of AI server liquid cooling systems is expected to surge from $8.9 billion in 2025 to over $17 billion in 2026. Driven by giants like Google in the ASIC sector, the development prospects for liquid cooling are highly optimistic, with China’s supply chain playing a leading role.
